Motivation At which time point during an outbreak of a person-to-person transmitted disease can one declare the outbreak as having ended? Answering this question can be important in order to calm the population, re-attract tourists, stop export bans or reduce alertness status. The current WHO method for answering the above question is as follows: a period of two times the longest possible incubation time needs to pass without observing additional cases, before the outbreak can be declared as being over. ...